How I Calculate Cost Estimates

Look, here’s the deal.

I put a Cost Estimate on these recipes because I want you to be able to answer one simple question before you start cooking:

“Am I about to spend a normal amount of money… or am I about to accidentally create a $47 Tuesday night?”

Because nothing ruins your day faster than thinking you’re making “simple burgers” and then somehow you’re standing in the grocery store holding a jar of paprika like it’s a down payment.

So this estimate is here to help you:

plan the week
compare it to takeout
stop getting surprised at checkout
and still cook like a competent adult

It is NOT here to pretend grocery pricing is perfectly predictable. Because it isn’t. Your city, your store, and whether you insist on “the fancy version” of everything… all changes the game.

That’s why we do it as a low-to-high U.S. estimate.

What the estimate actually means

When you see a cost range, it’s basically saying:

“If you buy normal groceries in the U.S., you’ll usually land somewhere in here.”

And we’re aiming for this range to be “real life accurate” for most people — meaning if you’re outside the range, it’s usually because of one of these things:

you shop at a higher-end store (or a cheaper one)
you live in a city where everything costs more (or less)
you chose organic / specialty / name-brand across the board
a key ingredient (like beef) is randomly expensive that week

How we calculate the low-to-high range

We basically do the math in three steps:

We start with a baseline “average U.S.” price for ingredients.

We start with a consistent national grocery price benchmark (generic/store-brand), using standard package sizes.

That way we’re not just guessing, and we’re not changing the rules recipe to recipe.

We convert ingredients into “what you used” cost.

Example: if a recipe uses 1 tsp of garlic powder, we price 1 tsp, not the entire jar.
This is what makes the number feel fair instead of stupid.

We adjust that baseline to a low-cost and high-cost area using regional price data.

We use the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Price Parities (RPPs) and specifically the Goods category (because groceries are goods, and rents are not groceries).

Then we take:

the lowest-cost metro as the low end of the range
the highest-cost metro as the low end of the range

What year is the regional data?
RPPs are released annually by BEA; the current BEA release listed on their RPP page is December 12, 2024, and it includes metro-level tables for 2023 (with Goods shown).

Why your exact price will still vary

Even in the same city, your total can change based on:

store type (discount vs premium)
sale cycles
brand vs store-brand
meat pricing (this is the big one)
seasonal swings (produce will humble you)

So we’re not trying to nail your receipt down to the penny. We’re trying to give you a range that stays useful without pretending we’re doing magic.

What’s included in the estimate

Pantry staples, like olive oil or salt are counted only for what you use.

That means:

If a recipe uses 1 tbsp mustard, we count 1 tbsp, not “you had to buy a whole bottle.”
Same for spices, oils, vinegar, etc.

But if a recipe needs something that most people don’t keep around (like a pound of ground beef, burger buns, or a head of lettuce), that’s treated like a real grocery purchase.

In other words:

We’re not pretending you already own everything.

We’re also not punishing you for needing a teaspoon of paprika.

Want to see the city data we’re basing the range on?

BEA publishes the interactive tables/maps for Regional Price Parities by state and metro area here.

That’s the “cost-of-living by region” backbone we’re using to stretch the estimate low-to-high.

If you’re wondering what we’re basing the regional part on, that’s BEA’s Regional Price Parities (RPPs).

The ingredient prices themselves come from our consistent national grocery benchmark.

We keep the same national grocery benchmark across recipes so the estimates stay consistent.

Pantry staples list

Oils & fats: Extra-virgin olive oil, avocado oil, canola oil, vegetable oil, butter
Vinegars: Distilled white vinegar, apple cider vinegar, red wine vinegar, rice vinegar, balsamic vinegar
Condiments & sauces: Dijon mustard, yellow mustard, ketchup, mayonnaise, Worcestershire sauce, hot sauce
Spices & seasonings: Salt, black pepper, whole peppercorns, fresh garlic, garlic powder, onion powder, paprika, Italian seasoning, oregano, basil, red pepper flakes, cayenne
Pantry extras: Breadcrumbs, panko, chicken stock, chicken broth, bouillon

Now back to cooking.